圖書典藏及影音數位平台

本計畫為改善相關疏濬工程專案風險管理議題，藉由整理過去疏濬工程專案相關資料作為風險分析基礎，辨識各類風險因子諸如疏濬河段、疏濬土砂材質等，剖析疏濬專案的工期與成本變量的各別風險機率分布，並進一步發展出影響疏濬工程專案之工期與成本預測模式，以協助疏濬工程之管理單位因應疏濬工程中主要的不確定性因素。本研究成果可提供河川局同仁未來疏濬工程專案風險掌控及決策之參考。

Taiwan, where is narrow and contains too many people. Furthermore, Taiwan's topography is steep, rivers are short and rushing with upstream erosion, and downstream accumulation is strong. In order to maintain river stability and human safety, we need to manage project carefully and thoroughly. Due to communicate with stakeholders and conduct migration within a different scale dredging project is a tremendous amount of work. Water Resources Agency has contributed to predominate the implementation status and effectiveness of various engineering projects, and has taken measures to continuously solve various problems. Via the project “Enhance dredging efficiency by using project management tool with A.I Engine”, it was found that dredging projects were subject to the scale of the project team, engineering, schedule, types of bidding, methods of contracting factors etc. Therefore, in the dredging projects’ implementations, each river bureaus face some situations such as the contracted manufacturers’ complicated background, the unpredictable risks associated with the impact of the stakeholders, and the delays caused by the manufacturers’ violations. Due to the geographical environment, river characteristics, market and other factors, each river office have to adapt to local conditions and have different issues and risks, which leads to the uncertainty within a dredging project implementation. Moreover, lacking immediate and effective information for judgment and decision-making, and the dredging information is not systematically organized, so the analysis mode is needed as the basis for dredging management. The intention of the project is to increase risk management knowledge energy and minimize the losses impact of the risk. First, by assessing and identifying risks, we will screen out high-risk events and stakeholders with the improvements to reduce the risks which may occur during the dredging project. Then, the qualitative and quantitative risk analysis model was established by sorting out the dredging basis data from the past. Dredging project team must face some decisions are required to make, such as dredging location selecting, the type of dredging, scope, and proportion of sand and gravel. Depend on the risk probability distribution of the dredging engineering period and cost variables, the dredging risk response mechanism and decision support information are constructed to strengthen the dredging risk management energy.