圖書典藏及影音數位平台

為能審慎評估全球氣候變遷對水利事業可能造成的衝擊及謀劃相關因應策略，在總體考量國情、體制、資源、研發與實務工作能力及水利部門應有作為，經濟部水利署於民國103年度執行「氣候變遷第3階段管理計畫」，並規劃5年(103~107年)「氣候變遷對水環境之衝擊與調適研究第3階段管理計畫」科技研究發展專案計畫。 本研究為該管理計畫中之一環，目的為整合與建立曾文溪流域及其影響範圍內洪澇災害、土砂災害、海岸暴潮溢淹及海岸侵蝕災害、水庫防洪防淤安全及水資源經營管理等面向之整合評估模式，本計畫執行期間為三年(民國104~106年)，進行國內外相關氣候變遷文獻資料蒐集與探討、水文氣象及災害資料蒐集與分析、區域影響範圍界定、區域影響範圍內課題評析、氣候變遷影響下整合評析架構建立、情境設定與降雨變化影響評析、設定情境下水文、地文及邊界條件探討、整合型系統評析模式建立、整合型系統評析模式率定與驗證、氣候變遷影響因子探討與擇定、氣候變遷影響下整合衝擊評估、脆弱度及風險整合評估、建立風險地圖、總合調適策略擬訂及總合調適計畫暨行動方案擬訂等15項工作項目，整體性考量氣候變遷對曾文溪流域及其影響區域範圍內總合影響，建立整合型系統評析模式，設定情境下進行整合衝擊評估、脆弱度與風險評估並建立風險地圖，擬訂總合調適策略與總合調適計畫暨行動方案，供政府及相關組織因應氣候變遷調適參考。

Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs (WRA) is performing the third phase of “The research project of impact and adaptation of water environment with respect to climate change.” This study is part of the project. The purpose of this study is to review and integrate different management areas of the implement and assessment methods for adaptation strategy with respect to climate change. These six management areas include flood disaster, sediment disaster, coastal storm surge and inundation, coastal erosion, reservoir flood control and silting management, and water resources management. This is a 3-year study from 2015 through 2017. In the first year, this study focuses on collection of current research topics and adaptation strategies; establishment of integrated assessment structure; and discussion on the hydrological influence related to climate change. The results show that the disaster areas located near Tsengwen Reservoir have difference influence factors based on its space characteristics. Without consideration of sediment disasters, no obvious interrelationship is found between different disaster types. With consideration of sediment disasters, all influence factors are interrelated because a sediment disaster can be seen as one event in the basin system. These influence factors include reservoir flood control and silt management, water resources management, flooding and coastal erosion, and storm surge inundation. This study preliminarily inventories two categories of the historical projects of adaptation strategies related to Tsengwen River Basin: (A) planned and executed, and (B) recommended for further planning. Forty strategies can be found in four areas located in the Tsengwen River Basin. The strategies classified into category A are basically control and relieve measures for the disaster at a local area. For projects related to other areas are mostly classified into category B. This study also provides an integrated assessment structure for Tsengwen River Basin. This structure is developed based on a basin-scale environmental simulation model for simulating long-term scenarios and obtaining discharge rate, sediment yield, and outflow rate for each node in the basin. These data are then used for modeling and assessing the influence on the six management areas. The models used for the assessment includes physiographic drainage and inundation model, sediment budget model, water resources model, and coastal model. Instead of modifying the design or regulations, the results are used to update the adaptation strategies to mitigate the damage, vulnerability, exposure degree, and risk resulted from climate change. Finally, these adaptation strategies are platted in strategy road maps as references for decision making. This study inventories the relevant regulation projects and research reports on the Zeng-wen River Basin, and consolidate the adaption strategies of various types of disasters. In order to confirm the implementation status and implementation feasibility of the inventory results, an advisory committee was set up. Three expert consultation meetings were conducted to integrate the six management areas into three aspects: reservoir siltation, water resources, and disaster prevention. Five recommended adaptation strategies: Second Reservoir Upstream in the Nan-Hua Reservoir, Crop Adjustment, Zeng-wen Cross-watershed Diversion (western tunnel), Second Line of Defense (Shanhua Flood Detention Basin and Provincial Highway 61 Embankment), and Strengthening of Existing Measures were integrated eventually. The Integrated System Analysis Model includes Watershed Module, 1-D Channel Module, Flood Routine Module, Estuary and Coastal Module and Water Resources Module. Climate change scenarios are set as follows, water resources: A1B-S1 scenario, A1B-S2 scenario and Two years of drought (2002~2003) scenario; disaster prevention: Typhoon Morakot scenario, A1B design rainfall scenario and Target years (2020~2039) scenario.