圖書典藏及影音數位平台

本計畫以三年為期，研究氣候變遷影響下可能最大降雨、流量的改變，並研擬評估水源設施脆弱度盤查的方法，以確實掌握氣候變遷下水源設施面臨的風險。 民國103年(第1年)蒐集國內外重大洪災事件、經驗公式、氣象數值模式及可能最大降雨推估等相關成果，評估因氣候變遷之影響，並建立可能最大降雨(PMP)模式與可能最大流量(PMF)模式，以翡翠水庫、石門水庫、鯉魚潭水庫、曾文水庫為例。 民國104年(第2年)進行之主要工作範圍有二：1、PMP、PMF推估方法研究：建置模式，推估因氣候變遷影響下之PMP、PMF，並與颱風模式法進行比較，進而研提氣候變遷影響下，PMP、PMF推估方法。2、水源設施脆弱度盤查方法研究：蒐集國內外水源設施脆弱度評估與盤查方式，初步研擬水庫與攔河堰的脆弱度指標與分級標準。 本(105)年度(第3年)主要工作範圍有二：1、延續前期研究成果，藉由召開專家座談會議來精進本計畫研提之PMP、PMF推估方法，並進行推估方法參考手冊彙編。2、建置水庫與攔河堰脆弱度指標與分級標準，以石門水庫、鯉魚潭水庫、曾文水庫為案例進行盤查，並藉以彙編脆弱度盤查方法參考手冊，供水利署相關單位參考。

Serious floods may occur frequently under climate change and destroy the water supply facilities to cause tremendous disasters. In order to cope with the aforementioned problem in Taiwan, this three-year-period project aims to investigate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), the probable maximum flood (PMF), and vulnerabilities of water-supply facilities under climate change scenarios for grasping the damage risk of water supply facilities in the future. The-third-year project (The project of this year) aims to review the proposed PMP and PMF models which consider the combined effect of typhoon and monsoon for PMP and PMF estimations under climate change scenarios. Three reservoirs, i.e., Shih-Men, Li-Yu-Tan, and Tseng-Wen, are chosen as the study areas. Besides, the project of this year collected the literature on vulnerability assessment for water-supply facilities, investigated the impact factors of climate change on water-supply facilities, and preliminarily designed the vulnerability indexes and grade scales for reservoirs and dams. The work items of this year include: (1) Review and select the PMP and PMF Methods, (2) Literature Collection on Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Facilities, (3) Design of Vulnerability Indexes and Grade Scales for Reservoirs and Dams, (4) Case Studies, (5) Compile the reference manual.