圖書典藏及影音數位平台

風險分析於工程分析設計規劃上有相當之重要性。近年來，政府為改善各地區之水患已依規劃方案持續進行排水整治且多已見治理成效，惟面對近年來氣候之變遷及超大豪雨之情況，既有之改善設施及保護標準是否足以妥善面對災害之挑戰，尚存有相當程度之風險及不確定性。現行排水規劃設計情境係採一種重現期距對應一個雨量，一個流域對應一種降雨逕流關係分析，且實際上水文分析、地文分析等參數選取有模糊地帶及不確定，在此種設計情境與實際發生災害情境必不相同已存在一定風險，然而實際降雨非屬設計之單一情境，實務上無法正確掌握災害範圍而有所相對應作為，倘又遇超出保護標準災害，災害是否會隨之減輕或更加嚴重，是值得探討之議題。因此排水規劃不僅考量設計條件之情形外，更應將不同風險納入排水規劃評估。 排水規劃設計情境納入風險分析會直接影響方案決策及經濟分析，本所已於104年度提出「排水規劃設計風險及不確定性因子之探討」，目的在確認排水規劃風險評估目標、風險因子及建立排水規劃風險分析初步架構，而在研究過程中發現會遭遇之困難與挑戰仍需再釐清及克服，例如如何選定風險項目進行評估作業及設計控制作業等。因此本計畫將延續前階段成果探討選定風險項目及設計風險控制作業，藉由案例探討歸納後，擬定控制風險作業並運用於排水規劃方案內，且於擇定方案分析時新增風險控制作業評估，納入現行區域排水規劃參考手冊增修。

1、Preface In recent years, the government has made efforts to improve and control flood in Taiwan and gained positive results in drainage regulation. However, the global climate change causes both protection standards of facilities and facility construction raised new challenges of their appropriateness. Thus, it was necessary to apply risk analysis into hydrologic engineering. 2、Improvement of Domestic Drainage Framework This study focused on the feasible assessments of drainage planning and designing processes under the consideration of risks and uncertainties. The first version had been formulated in the year of 2015. In this study, we first reviewed all the existing design specifications for drainage planning, organizing and analyzing important issues. Second, a case study has been provided to address the applicability of new developed framework. Moreover, this study extended the previous recommendations to explore the selected risk factors and design the risk control frameworks. Finally, completing the risk control framework into drainage-planning regulations and applied this assessment into the existing regional drainage planning. 3、Conclusion In short, the contributions of this study could be recognized as applying the concept of FMEA into the core procedure of the domestic frameworks. We finally purpose risk definition, which based on the project orientation and two stage risk-based drainage framework to the current procedure.