圖書典藏及影音數位平台

依院核定之國家氣候變遷行動調適綱領項下「維生系統領域」之調適策略-落實維生基礎設施維修養護，以提昇其於氣候變遷作用下之調適能力與研發基礎設施之氣候變遷調適新技術，故本計畫分析與評估氣候變遷下最大可能降雨情境，對於水資源設施影響，以作為其安全評估工作的參考，另亦協助相關單位盤查水源設施在氣候變遷衝擊下而不致失能或破壞之能力高低。 為此經濟部水利署已於民國99年辦理「氣候變遷對水環境之衝擊與調適研究計畫」科技研究發展，全程計畫為期四年，依據階段性研究成果滾動式修正水利署「因應氣候變遷調適策略及行動方案」，已獲致一定成果。自民國103年起，持續進行氣候變遷之衝擊、脆弱度及風險評估。 為因應台灣地區因氣候變遷所引發暴雨洪流，造成水源設施重大破壞而導致災害。本計畫擬以三年為期程，研究氣候變遷影響下最大可能降雨、流量的改變，並研擬評估水源設施脆弱度盤查的方法，以確實掌握氣候變遷下水源設施面臨的風險。 本計畫於第一年（103年）蒐集國內外重大洪災事件、經驗公式、氣象數值模式及最大可能降雨推估等相關成果，評估因氣候變遷對降雨造成之影響與機制，進而建立模式，並以石門水庫、鯉魚潭水庫、曾文水庫為例模擬氣候變遷造成之影響。第二年（104年）進行最大降水量及流量估算方法研究，藉由蒐集相關方法、理論、模式，建置模式推估因氣候變遷影響下最大可能降雨與流量、並與國內常用的颱風模式法之結果比較，進而研提氣候變遷影響下，最大可能降雨與流量的推估方法。 本計畫亦擬於第二年起（104～105年）進行水源設施脆弱度盤查方法研究，蒐集國內外水源設施脆弱度評估與盤查方式、綜整氣候變遷對水源設施之影響因子、進而研提水庫與攔河堰的脆弱度指標與分級標準、並以石門水庫、鯉魚潭水庫、曾文水庫為例進行盤查；本計畫為延續性計畫，總期程預計分為3個年度執行，本（103）年度為第1年度。

Serious floods may occur frequently under climate change and destroy the water supply facilities to cause tremendous diasters. In order to cope with the aformentioned problem in Taiwan, this three-year-period project aims to investigate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), the probable maximum flood (PMF), and vulnerabilities of water-supply facilities under climate change senarios for grasping the damage risk of water supply facilities in the future. Serious floods may occur frequently under climate change and destroy the water supply facilities to cause tremendous disasters. In order to cope with the aforementioned problem in Taiwan, this three-year-period project aims to investigate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), the probable maximum flood (PMF), and vulnerabilities of water-supply facilities under climate change scenarios for grasping the damage risk of water supply facilities in the future. The-second-year project (The project of this year) aims to improve the proposed PMP and PMF models which consider the combined effect of typhoon and monsoon for PMP and PMF estimations under climate change scenarios. Four reservoirs, i.e., Fei-Tsui, Shih-Men, Li-Yu-Tan, and Tseng-Wen, are chosen as the study areas. Besides, the project of this year collected the literature on vulnerability assessment for water-supply facilities, investigated the impact factors of climate change on water-supply facilities, and preliminarily designed the vulnerability indexes and grade scales for reservoirs and dams. The work items of this year include: (1) Applicability Evaluation of PMP and PMF Methods, (2) Model Development for PMP and PMF Estimation, (3) Case Studies, (4) Literature Collection on Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Facilities, (5) Design of Vulnerability Indexes and Grade Scales for Reservoirs and Dams, and (6) Oral Presentation and Edition of Preliminary, Mid-term, and Final Project Reports.