圖書典藏及影音數位平台

淡水河REFOR模式歷經多年數場颱洪事件考驗，證實具可靠之準確度、時效性及功能性等。於97年至101年辦理「淡水河即時洪水預報系統模式擴充及維護」計畫及102年辦理「十河局轄區洪水預警及防汛整合作業」計畫擴充模式功能為具備即時預報、事件模擬、參數檢定、決策支援功能，並引進中央氣象局QPESUMS產品，水利署颱風氣候法降雨預報結果，颱洪中心系集降雨預報產品，提供高解析度降雨預報資料。預報範圍更由原先的淡水河(後村堰至河口)、基隆河、新店溪，擴充到大漢溪上游(至石門後池)、景美溪、二重疏洪道、三峽河及南勢溪流域，使洪水預報之產品能夠更適切的描述整個淡水河流域的水情。針對集水分區及代表雨量站進行修改擴充及檢討評估，使集水區與河段架構更能合理反映流域現況。提高預報系統計算頻率為10分鐘，使其即時反應水位變化趨勢，且更符合小流域之水文反應實況。開發地圖化展示介面之相關圖資及功能，提供值勤人員視覺化水情預報資訊查訊，便於應用圖資迅速掌握流域現況。 本年度延續歷年成果，對REFOR模式以及塔寮坑溪子系統持續進行擴充與維護，並完整納入南勢溪水理演算，並測試納入後之系統穩定度及成果。協助整合轄內縣市政府水情資訊及淹水調查結果彙整，並將本局提供之最新淹水圖資套疊至地圖化展示介面，以供系統展示。評估塔寮坑溪龍壽滯洪池之模式開發建置可行性，並提出後續建議。開發洪水預報水情警戒資訊APP，使相關人員迅速掌握相關訊息。持續增加系統維護與操作之效率、增進洪水預報成果之準確性，提昇洪水預報之品質。

The Tenth River Management Office (WRA-10) has developed its own flood forecast system, called REFOR, “REal time Flash Flood Forecasting model FOR Dansuie River,” and has been updating and extending the basic data and simulation functions, including combination to database, GIS nowcast, event simulation, decision support and parameter calibration. The forecast range includes Dansuie River, Keelung River, Xindian River, Jingmei River, Erchong flood way and Sanxia River, and Nanshih Creek is added as upstream boundary for river water level and discharge forecast. The rainfall forecast technique includes inertia method, QPESUMS from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), typhoon climatology, ensemble forecast from Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. These are cooperated with tank model for catchment runoff and hydraulic model for river water level and discharge to reduce the forecast interval to 10 minutes, buying time for personnel to response to quickly changing situation in hazards. The decision making is assisted by hydrograph and flat map display. In this project, the REFOR system is kept maintained and extended in following content: Collecting and updating the rating curves, archiving the observations of torrential and typhoon events in 2012, updating the astronomical tide forecast database and upgrading the database operation system to Microsoft SQL Server 2012. Tools are developed for ETQPF data auto-reception and translation, and ETQPF data is imported into the stand-alone decision support REFOR, whom now uses 25-subwatershed rainfall input and has been modified the input and interface. Automatic parameter calibration module and stand-alone REFOR parameter verification function are applied to Soulik(2013), Matmo(2014) and Fung-Wong(2014) typhoon verifications. New cross sections in Keelung River with the new analyzed cross section survey of 2013 and the hydraulic routing in NanShih River are added to the system, new simulations of Matmo and Fung-Wong events are completed. The water information are gathered from Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung City government. In regards to the inundation survey, the inundation investigation and/or the aggregate report of 0521, 0623, 0625, 0629 and 0630 torrential rain and Fung-Wong typhoon events are provided, and the flooded area records are digitized. In additional to the maintenance of the map style demonstrate interface, new functions are also expanded. The rain station data from CWB are imported, and the compute and demonstration of the typhoon track forecast are developed. The hydrograph demonstration function of arbitrary cross section and the editing function of flood preparation material information are developed. And the geomorphology data analysis and flood simulation program is developed, the geomorphology data of Sanshia and Xizhi area are analyzed, and the simulation of Sanshia flood overflow in 2012 Soulik is performed and verified. In this year, the situation assess briefing of 0618 torrential rain and Hagibis typhoon events, and in level 2 openness in WRA-10, personnel are stationed and typhoon report are provided. In terms of the work of multi-source rainfall and observation comparison and demonstration, the Thissen’s interpolation program and on-line in-time operation of 25-subwatershed rainfall computation on FEWS_Taiwan platform is completed and demonstrated on the platform.