圖書典藏及影音數位平台

本計畫將依據歷年來颱風期間運轉資料，檢討牡丹水庫洩洪機制（釐清提早洩洪的時間及防洪空間），評估既有的降雨預測模式、降雨逕流預報模式、河川洪水預報模式。建立初步的牡丹水庫防洪運轉決策支援及入庫流量預測模式。

In recent years, extreme weather led to disaster more frequently. For example, Nanmadol Typhoon made a major disaster in Hengchuen Peninsula in 2011. During the Typhoon, Mudan Reservoir rained up to 1045mm, the flood volume was 6388 million ton, discharge volume was 6196 million ton, and the total discharge of water was double of the storage capacity. The maximum of rainfall was 118mm within one hour in Rureng Gage Station, and the rainfall concentrated in 48 hours, which made flood control operations highly tense. This study is to assist the operation of Mudan Reservoir during Typhoon. The work contained the assessment gage station network, rainfall variance analysis of temporal and spatial, support of establishing the basic flood control policy-making, watershed hydrologic simulation, and mastering Sihjhongsi basin hydrological condition for reducing the probability of flooding in downstream. The rain gauge network assessment showed that the upper reaches of the Rureng River lacked of data, build rain gauges in this area are recommended. The correlation of each rain gauge decreases apparently when the distance of each rain gauge gets farther. Finding the rain gauge with higher correlations from the typhoons with different paths separately will help rainfall estimation in the future. While lacking of data, we can using the records of rain gauge with higher correlation for reference. The total rainfall amount from typhoons of all paths in this proposal can be used to judge the possible total rainfall amount of certain path and decide whether to proceed the drainage in advance or not. the prediction rainfall of future 72 hours, 48 hours and 24 hours provided by the Taiwan Typhoon and flood research institute can be used to estimate the inflow when a alert for the typhoon is issued. When the typhoon approaches and land warning for the typhoon is issued, the rainfall prediction provided by Central Weather Bureau is used to estimate the inflow. Hec-HMS and Hec-RAS models were built to provide the decision-making information for Mudan Reservoir.