圖書典藏及影音數位平台

淡水河REFOR模式歷經多年颱洪事件考驗，證實具可靠準確度、時效性及功能性等。於97至100年擴充為具備即時預報、事件模擬、參數檢定、決策支援功能，引進中央氣象局QPESUMS、水利署颱風氣候法及颱洪中心系集預報，開發擬3D地圖展示介面。預報範圍含蓋淡水河、基隆河、新店溪、景美溪、二重疏洪道、三峽河。 本年度延續歷年成果，對REFOR及塔寮坑溪子系統持續進行擴充與維護。整合斷面周邊相關資訊並修改REFOR預報範圍，重新檢討基隆河水筒，整合颱風氣候法72小時預報產品。且持續增加系統維護與操作效率、增進洪水預報成果之準確性，提昇洪水預報之品質。

The “Real Time Flash Flood Forecasting Model for Tamshui River” (REFOR) was developed by the 10th River Management Office in 2004. From 2008 to 2011, the 10th River Management Office updated fundamental geological and hydrological data of REFOR and extended model functions for satisfy real time operation demands. The items of extended function contain database, GIS user interface, and Map display system combination; historical events simulation, decision support system, and parameter calibration system development. Furthermore, after a real state estimation of rain gauges and water level stations in Taliaoken river basin, a beta version of the real time flash flood forecasting system for Taliaoken river basin was established according to the system architecture of REFOR, which is a first flash flood forecasting system for urban drainage network in Taiwan. The extension and maintenance of REFOR would proceed continually in 2012. The maintenance items include: 1. Geological and hydrological data update for REFOR and Taliaoken flood forecasting system, data analysis, and e-book production, 2. Stability tests for Sanxia river channel routing, and 3. Provide flood forecasting information on duty of typhoon period. The extension items include: 1. To make the channel routing program called REFOR-F model more robust and to extend weir flow computation module, 2. According to tributaries distribution of the Tamshui River to divide sub catchment area, 3. To import the Typhoon Climatologic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (TCQPF) model 72 hours rainfall forecasting product from Water Resource Agency (WRA), 4. To extend user interfaces function continually with real time operational demand, and 5. To estimate the feasibility of connects real time releasing discharge data input to REFOR from Yuanshan weir and Zhitan weir. The results of this project is completed all extended functions for REFOR. The river forecasting results include water lever and discharge of Tamshui River, Keelung River, Xindian River, Jingmei River, Sanxia River, and Erchong Floodway, which could express the influences by each diversity engineering structure explicitly. The robustness REFOR-F model could simulate the same river section as NewC model, users could double check flood forecasting result by two models’ simulation outcome. Sub catchment area review by tributaries distribution could express lateral flow effect for river flow more reasonable. The 72 hours TCQPF product would be imported to REFOR and makes user got a grip on variation trend of river stage and discharge. The customize user interface developed for real demand while flood periods, which makes the operation quality of flood forecasting by the 10th River Management Office more enhancement.