圖書典藏及影音數位平台

本計畫主要目的為針對104年度之工作內容，進行石門水庫防洪、防淤及供水運轉操作決策支援系統成效檢討，更新改善與補充系統相關分析模組，並於颱風、豪雨期間進駐石門水庫協勤，操作該決策支援系統，提供全洪程即時水庫運轉操作諮詢與策略建議，以利水庫整體操作策略之研析，提升防洪防淤運轉成效，並依據水庫實際運轉操作情形。

Abstract 1、Preface This project has developed a window-based decision support system for reservoir flood control, sediment sluicing and water supply. The proposed decision support system includes six modules: reservoir operation database query, typhoon path classification and flood pattern forecast, adaptive water pre-release strategy, real-time reservoir rainfall-runoff forecast, reservoir sediment sluicing analysis and water supply risk analysis. The main purpose of the decision support system is to estimate the entire inflow hydrograph, to analyze sediment sluicing operation and water supply risk and to automatically generate documents for decision makers during typhoon periods. The tasks of this year (2016) are to maintain this decision support system, add new typhoon data, update some modules, automatically generate some tables and documents, and dispatch on-duty staffs to give real-time assistance to operation consultancy and strategy suggestions during typhoon periods. The tasks can enhance the effectiveness of flood control and anti-sediment operation. The major achievements of this project are summarized as follows. 2、Collect new Data and Update query module Reservoir operation data of four typhoon events of this year (2016), i.e. Typhoons Nepartak, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, have been added into database. The project database has accumulated the reservoir operation data associated with a total of 92 typhoon events with complete flood operation data. In the query module, new functions, query of typhoon location for reservoir inflow peak and display of flow characteristic curves, have been added to enhace the effectiveness of flood operation. 3、Update Typhoon path classification module In this year, we separated Typhoon path classification and Flood pattern forecast module into two modules, Typhoon path classification module and Flood pattern forecast module. In the Typhoon path classification module, the typhoon path classification of CWB has been added. Therefore, users can use the typhoon path classification of SOM model or CWB to filter historical typhoons and to find the most similar path of typhoon. 4、Update Flood pattern forecast module The function of Flood pattern forecast module has been extended. The new functions include start and end time of typhoon and the estimation of flood recession. The options for the start time of typhoon are typhoon entering the ranges of the defined grids and significant rising of reservoir inflow. The options for the end time of typhoon are typhoon leaving the ranges of the defined grids and the decresing of rainfall intensity. The results showed that the flow characteristic curves have the most similarity when choosing the influence period between the time of significant rising of reservoir inflow and the time of the decresing of rainfall intensity. The functions of the estimation of flood recession include settings of start operating time, outflow of gates and the final water level to simulate the outflow hydrograph of reservoir and to display the relative figures and tables. 5、Add real-time release strategy module The last year’s project has searched the optimal solutions of outflow operation for the normal and surcharge operating condition with the highest water levels of 245 m and 247.5 m, respectively. In this year, we used the optimal solutions to contruct the intelligent reservoir fuzzy flood operation model. The performance of the proposed intelligent model is great with 370-420 cms of RMSE and 0.9 of R2. 6、Add automatic document generation module for operation decision information The automatic document generation module has been added into the decision support system. This module can automatically generate five documents, “Operation Strategy of the entire flood hydrograph”, “results of real-time Rainfall-runoff models”, “hydrograph of flood recession”, “hourly information report of reservoir” and “real-time release strategy”. They can provide the important information for reservoir operators and decision makers. 7、Duty assistance for typhoon events In this year, we have given duty assistance of four typhoon events and have submitted reservoir operation reports with the assessment on the simulation of the optimal flood control operation except typhoon Meranti. 8、Education and technology transfer This project has organized two training programs for the maintenance and operation of the developed reservoir operation system. The first one is to introduce the functions of this decision system and to give assistance to operators using this system; the second one is to demonstrate the on-site operation of this system for this year’s typhoons and to enhance the operators’ experiences. We also provide the operating manual "Shihmen Reservoir Decision Support System for Flood Control, Sediment Sluicing and Water Supply".