圖書典藏及影音數位平台

為分析氣候變遷對淡水河及頭前溪水系水資源供水系統的衝擊及重新擬定供需間調配的能力，從水文循環的觀點，掌握雨水、河川水、水庫水及地下水之間受到氣候變遷的影響，進而鞏固區域供水系統之穩定性，並藉過去既有區域供水潛能評估方案，尋求各項新增水資源方案的可能性與適用性，最後在氣候變遷的情境下，建立水資源風險評估機制，將設施風險、系統風險及供水風險同時納入考量，且進行風險管理，研擬氣候變遷下水資源有效運用及風險因應策略，以達掌握整體水資源系統之承載能力與風險，做為未來北部地區推動水資源相關計畫之參考依據。

The object of this project is to analyze the impact of climate change to water supply system of Tamsui River and Touqian River and re-draft the ability of allocating supply and demand. From the perspective of hydrological cycle, we grasp the influence of climate change on water resources, assess the risk of regional water supply system, and find the possibility and applicability of the schemes for increasing water resources based on the existing potential assessment schemes. Besides, we build the assessment mechanism for the risk of water supply, which takes the facility risk, system risk, and water supply risk into consideration simultaneously under the climate change scenario. Moreover, the risk management has been done and the effective water usage policies and the risk response policies has also been proposed to grasp the capacity and the risk of entire water resources system and raise the stability of regional water supply system. The main result of this project contains the present risk of two river systems, the residual risk at each stage, and the investigation of reducing water supply for agriculture partition by turns: 1. The present risk (1) Tamsui River system The leaking percentage in Keelung area and the lack of Banqiao, Xinzhuang, and Taoyuan system during drought are at “extreme risk”. The silting of Shihmen Reservoir is at “high risk” and the others are most at “medium risk” or lower. (2) Touqian River system The lack of Hsinchu system during drought are at “high risk” and the others are most at “medium risk” or lower. 2. The residual risk This project sort out the controlling strategies of water resources facilities, system, supply, and demand. The unbalance of water supply and demand could be mitigated effectively through implementing associated countermeasure in management and constructions step by step. 3. The investigation of reducing water supply for agriculture partition by turns This water saving plan allocates the water amount for agriculture based on the water demand of public. Under the return period of 20 years and full usage of the water from Xindian River and Sanxia River, we assess the water amount for first season crop and the water saving target of agriculture with the public supply reduces about 10 percent in Banqiao, Xinzhuang, and Taoyuan area. At the current situation, if the public supply reduces less than 10 percent, the agriculture need to reduce 64.58 million water during the first crop season, which is about 27 percent of usage. At the target year situation, if the public supply reduces less than 10 percent, the agriculture need to reduce 37.45 million water during the first crop season, which is about 16 percent of usage. To ensure the right of farmers and maintain the food self-sufficiency ratio, water saving of agriculture should transfer rice to species with lower water demand first but this scheme involves the technique of farming and the institution of production and marketing, which is hard to achieve. The Water Resources Agency and the Council of Agriculture are studying the project named “the conversion of first season crop to dry crop in water competitive area” so we promote the conversion in agriculture department. We suggest to implement reducing supply by turns in group and subsidize the farmers with the same standard as the conversion until the water saving target is achieved and the conversion project is promoted successfully. There are three principles for the water supply reduction of agriculture partition by turns which is reducing supply (case1), confining supply (case 2), and fallowing voluntarily. The difficulty in grasping the amount of water saved in the case 3 makes the water saving target unavailable and the case 2 would face strong resistance because of no supply in principle so the case 1 is the suggested solution.