圖書典藏及影音數位平台

基隆河整體治理計畫(前期計畫)已於民國95年底完成所有防洪相關計畫，已完成相同於大台北防洪計畫重現期距200年洪峰流量並達防範納莉颱洪之保護程度，並經本所於民國98年完成「基隆河整體治理計畫後續追蹤及成效評估(3/3)」研究，前期計畫已達成原定之目標與效益。而行政院於民國101年4月26日院臺經字第1010022776號函中提示照經建會意見辦理，經由經建會審議「基隆河整體治理計畫後續追蹤及成效評估」綜提意見，由於基隆河整體治理計畫（前期計畫）完成後尚未遭逢類似納莉颱風強度之重大颱洪事件，相關工程措施等成果仍需實際颱洪事件進行檢驗，故需持續進行監測、分析及檢討，視需要進行相關方案之研究，爰持續辦理本計畫案。

Following the completion of Keelung River Integrated Improvement Plan, there has been no occurrence of flood event similar to that of Nari Typhoon in the basin. Therefore there exists a need to continuously monitor, analyze and evaluate the project and to perform related studies, when needed. As a continuation to the results performed in the last two years, this study is to evaluate hazard potential of Keelung River under extreme climate and to study follow-up plan as well as to determine their feasibility and benefit. In this study, HEC-RAS hydraulic model was used to determine flood discharge capability of the river channel. It was found that the weak river reach in Keelung River is in the reach from section 1 to 9. In addition, the SOBEK model was used to simulate inundation potential in the basin. Using the hydrologic data derived in 2015 and climate change Scenario AIB, it was found that the total inundation area using the 2015 hydrologic event is about 3,418 ha. Among this, 1908 ha is in Kuantu and Serzudou area. The inundation area due to climate change Secnario AIB is about 6,690 ha and among them 1,993 is in Kuantu/Serzudou area. Flooding of the Kuantu/Serzudou area is caused by overflow from the river, while the other area is mostly due to insufficient local drainage. The study revealed that under extreme climate condition, there exists high flooding risk in Keelung River basin. Consideration should be made of possible response measures. In this study, tentative schemes have been developed on weak region along Keelung River for evaluation. Results revealed that scheme such as construction of reservoir for flood control, construction of flood retention pond, dredging of main channel, flood diversion etc. are unfeasible due to high cost and difficulty to implement. It is suggested that dike enhancement, tributary improvement, channel dredging, run-off distribution and outflow control, as well as evacuation and establishment of shelter be considered for follow-up measures. Specifically, they are: the construction of Kuantu and Serzudou dike in the reach from section 1 to 9 will be able to resolve flooding problem there. To take care of floods in excess of design standard, it is suggested that run-off sharing and outflow control scheme be adopted to reduce river runoff loading. Improvement on bridge structure which has been recommended in the original plan should preceed. Other works such as monitoring of dike structural integrity, flood warning and water-status monitoring, etc. should continue as have been suggested. In addition, the mangrove area in Kuantu should be also monitored to prevent their growth to impinge outlet flood discharge capability of the river. To accommodate flooding in excess of designed protection standard, it is suggested that in middle to high potential inundation areas to establish flooding level baseline. This can be used as the reference base for flood shelter and building design. In addition, regular updating of flood inundation map, etc. should be done. At the same time in flood prone region, volunteer group should be organized to enhance flood-event adaption and reduce flood damage. Finally, middle and downstream reached of Keelung River are highly developed, with tall buildings and basements. To secure safety of residence, it is suggested that encouragement on construction of flood control gate at enterance to basement should be made. Finally, the Ministry of Interior has begun to formulate, management policy on land-use utilization in Keelung River basin. In the future land development shall not increase surface runoff. This is to avoid worsening of flood risk due to flood flow increase.