圖書典藏及影音數位平台

將依據歷年來颱風期間運轉資料，檢討牡丹水庫洩洪機制（釐清提早洩洪的時間及防洪空間），評估既有的降雨預測模式、降雨逕流預報模式、河川洪水預報模式。建立牡丹水庫防洪運轉決策支援及入庫流量預測系統。本計畫為檢討颱洪期間洩洪的時間及防洪空間，評估既有的降雨預測模式、降雨逕流預報模式、河川洪水預報模式，建立防洪運轉決策支援及入庫流量預測模式。考量工作人力需求龐大，及工作本身的專業性，為期爭取時效及工作順利推展，本中心現階段囿於人力不足，擬以公開客觀評選、限制性招標方式委託國內可提供專門知識服務之自然人、法人、機構或團體辦理。

In recent years, extreme weather led to disaster more frequently. For example, Nanmadol Typhoon made a major disaster in Hengchuen Peninsula in 2011. During the Typhoon, Mudan Reservoir rained up to 1045mm, the flood volume was 6388 million ton, discharge volume was 6196 million ton, and the total discharge of water was double of the storage capacity. The maximum of rainfall was 118mm within one hour in Rureng Gage Station, and the rainfall concentrated in 48 hours, which made flood control operations highly tense. This study is to assist the operation of Mudan Reservoir during Typhoon. The work contained the assessment gage station network, rainfall variance analysis of temporal and spatial, support of establishing the basic flood control policy-making, watershed hydrologic simulation, and mastering Sihjhongsi basin hydrological condition for reducing the probability of flooding in downstream. The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, analyze the statistical properties of the Plum rains, Typhoons and Convectional rains. With Kriging method to analyze spatial rainfall characteristics and time characteristics to explore rain variance. The results showed that convectional rain and typhoon storm rainfall type contains more events, the standard deviation was significantly greater than Plum rains, indicating the variation was bigger than Plum rains. The rain gauge network assessment showed that the Mudan gauge of Water Resources Agency is the most representative of rainfall gauges. If more rainfall gauge are taken into account, the risk of error in calculating the average rainfall is less. Hydrological modeling system uses a parameter optimization approach law given parameters, create a system program on Microsoft Excel, the design of the Mudan Reservoir dedicated hydrological modeling system for flood control operations personnel can quickly formulate appropriate strategy. HEC-RAS model combines to hydrological modeling system that can simulate the water level for downstream bridge, used to assess hazard risk. When the typhoon approaches and land warning for the typhoon is issued, the rainfall prediction provided by Central Weather Bureau is used to estimate the inflow. Hydrological modeling system were built to provide the decision-making information for Mudan Reservoir.