圖書典藏及影音數位平台

本團隊於102年度經北水局及石門水庫等相關單位協助下，已完成視窗化水庫防洪、防淤及供水水質運轉操作決策支援系統初步建置，應用於颱風豪雨期間掌握洪水歷程、入庫泥砂防淤與下游供水風險。故本計畫工作分為二大部分：(1)維護與更新去年所建置各分析模組；(2)研議以多目標演算搜尋法獲得石門水庫於颱風豪雨時期對於防洪、防淤與供水水質等三目標之多組最佳操作策略，探討水庫在颱風豪雨時期依此三目標操作之競合情況，以了解防洪減災、排砂防淤及穩定供水水質等多目標操作策略、更新現存操作運轉系統之模組，提供相關人員於颱洪時期操作策略之參考及運轉規範修訂。 二、基本資料蒐集與查詢模組更新 水庫運轉資料庫查詢系統，可匯出所訂定標準EXCEL格式檔與水文、氣象、運轉歷程圖，提供更全面之資料進行策略分析。 三、颱風路徑比對及流量歷程套配分析模組功能更新 SOM颱風路徑分類模式增加訓練資料，並進一步分析颱風位於石門水庫鄰近範圍內與集水區降雨、入流量相關性，使模式更能分類出颱風路徑不同的差異。 流量歷程套配分析模組提供兩種不同計算方法：其一為新增依據氣象局預報總降雨量，即可套配出全洪程之流量歷程，適用於颱風尚未影響水庫入流量時期，能提前數小時掌握其變化趨勢；其二為更新去年度方法，經測試後，呈現出更為穩定且推估效果良好之結果。 四、調節性放水策略分析模組功能更新 計算歷史颱風逕流係數，並結合於颱風路徑分類，可依據氣象局報總降雨量，即可推估逕流總體積，並納入更新於調節性放水策略分析模組。 五、降雨-逕流模組更新 更新降雨-徑流模式參數，強化模式之穩定性，建置兩種不同雨量資料來源(雨量站與QPESUMS)模式，可於雨量即時資料無法取得時自動轉換。 退水段推估建置三種模式進行評估，最後以R-NARX+指數型態回歸組合模式表現最佳，可供水庫退水段操作決策參考。 六、排砂防淤策略分析模組功能更新 排砂防淤策略分析模組部分，沿用去年度計畫之公式即時計算異重流速度及到達大壩時間，並根據12場颱風資料統計，建議可採用入流量大於1500cms為異重流抵達大壩之門檻。 七、視窗化水庫運轉操作決策支援系統介面更新 系統介面除配合各模組架構、參數修正進行更新外，各模組介面新增繪圖或表格資訊展示，提升系統的實用性。 八、蘇力及潭美颱風多目標操作運轉模擬 蘇力、潭美颱風多目標運轉操作模擬，以三目標(防洪、排砂、供水水質)與兩目標(排砂、供水水質)，並設定啟動排砂隧道與不啟動排砂隧道等情況進行多目標演算搜尋最佳操作運轉歷程。最佳模擬結果顯示(1)處理排砂問題宜考慮排洪隧道與溢洪道聯合操作(2)蘇力颱風排砂量受到排砂隧道啟動與否之影響遠大於潭美颱風(3) 除去供水水質之競合限制，僅以防洪、排砂兩目標搜尋，蘇力與潭美颱風之排砂量大增，尤其是蘇力颱風幾乎增加原來一半的效益。 九、颱風豪雨應變小組協勤作業 本研究團隊於今年計畫執行期間，已完成2場颱風事件之協勤作業，並提供水庫多目標運轉模擬及分析評估及全洪程即時運轉操作之策略建議。 十、教育訓練及技術轉移 本計畫針對北區水資源局相關維護與操作人員舉辦教育訓練課程，教育訓練課程內容包括系統模式理論、系統操作與實際颱風演練課程教學等，藉由教育訓練使其熟悉系統架構、各模組相關理論觀念與颱風時期提供相關資訊；並編製「石門水庫防洪、排砂、供水決策支援系統」操作手冊，提供現場操作人員使用上的便利性及落實決策支援系統實用性，最終將技術與系統全權轉移至北區水資源局。

We have constructed windows-based decision support systems for reservoir flood control, silting management and quality control of water supply, which has been applied with success for various typhoon and heavy rainfall events in the year of 2013. This project aims mainly to update the system for increasing its capability and applicability and for providing flood forecasts during typhoon events in the year of 2014. The work of this study is divided into two major parts: (1) maintain and update each analytical module built last year; and (2) search the optimal multi-objective reservoir operations during a typhoon event for three targets (flood control, silting management and quality control of water supply), which intends to explore reservoir operational strategies during the typhoon event in competing operating conditions of three targets for evaluating the suitability and applicability of the system. The updating windows-based reservoir operation system could provide valuable references during typhoon events and related strategies for revising the operating specifications. The major achievements of this study are summarized as follows. 2、Data collection and query module update The query system of reservoir operation database can be used to export EXCEL format prescribed by the standard file, histograms of hydrology, meteorology, operation, etc. It could provide a comprehensive data analysis for policy making. 3、Update Typhoon trail classification and Flood pattern forecast This study used the self-organizing map (SOM) to classify the track of typhoons and used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to build forecast models for predicting multi-step-ahead reservoir inflow. We have updated the SOM with many extra typhoon events to train the model and further analyzed the typhoon located in the vicinity of Shihmen Reservoir catchment areas and the flow correlation to better classify various typhoon paths. Flood forecast module has also been updated by two calculating methods: (1) using the total rainfall amount forecasted by the Central Weather Bureau to synthesize the whole flow pattern before a typhoon affects the reservoir inflow to grasp its trends; and (2) updating the previous method by new typhoon events and obtaining more stable and better results. 4、Update adaptive water release module The runoff coefficient is calculated based on historical typhoon events with a classification of typhoon path and forecasted total rainfall amount, and the total volume of runoff can be estimated. 5、Update rainfall - runoff module The parameters of rainfall-runoff module are updated based on two different rainfall sources (rainfall station and QPESUMS) in order to strengthen the module’s stability, and the constructed module can be automatically converted to real-time rainfall information. The recession inflow is modeled by three methods, and the R-NARX + index patterns regression model, which has the best performance, is selected for estimating the recession water segment. 6、Update sediment release control strategy module The sediment release control strategy follows the formula used in the previous year. The density flow velocity and its travel time to reach the dam is estimated according to the statistics of 12 typhoons, which suggests the threshold for the density flow to reach the dam can be set as 1500cms. 7、Update interface of the Windows-based decision support system for reservoir operation In addition to updating the system interface for the architecture of each module and parameters, the new graphic interface of each module and/or each table that display information is designed to enhance the usefulness of the system. 8、Simulate the multi-objective operation of Suli and Trami Typhoon The multi-objective reservoir operation with respect to three goals (flood control, sediment release, quality control of water supply) and two goals (sediment release, quality control of water supply) are simulated subject to the activation of the sediment tunnel. The best simulation results show that (1) to deal with the sediment issue, one should consider the joint operation of tunnel and spillway facilities; (2) the amount of sediment affected by the activation of sediment tunnel in Suli typhoon is much larger than that of the typhoon Trami; and (3) as the quality of water supply is not considered and only flood control and sediment release are concerned, the amount of sediment release can be significantly increased in both Suli and Trami typhoons, especially the benefit increases more than 50% in Suli typhoon. 9、Response team work for typhoon torrential rain In this year, we have provided all the necessary information and assistance for flood defense during two typhoon events. 10、Education and technology transfer The study has organized a training program for the maintenance and operations of the developed reservoir operation system. The education and training courses include modelling theory, system operation and the actual curriculum and exercises. Users can learn the system architecture, theory, concepts and relevant information during typhoon events; We also provide the operating manual "Decision Support System of Shihmen Reservoir for Flood Control, Sediment Release and Quality Control of Water Supply", which enhances the convenience and practicality of the implementation for on-site operating personnel.