圖書典藏及影音數位平台

淡水河即時洪水預報系統 (REFOR模式)是民國93年十河局自行研發之洪水預報系統。於民國97~98年進行REFOR模式基礎資料的更新與模擬功能的擴充，結合資料庫與GIS介面進行即時預報、事件模擬、決策支援、參數檢定等功能。此外，應用REFOR之架構，在評估塔寮坑溪水位站與雨量站實況後，開發塔寮坑溪洪水預報系統雛形，為都市內水之區排系統開啟第一套運作化的洪水預報系統。 本計畫持續維護擴充REFOR洪水預報系統之功能，除持續更新模式所需之基礎資料外，擬於評估景美溪及二重疏洪道資料現況後，納入景美溪及二重疏洪道之河川水理演算。此外，針對河口暴潮位之計算方式進行檢討，並提出改進方式，使預報模式在洪水時期能夠具有準確度高的河口下邊界條件。降雨預報的來源引進颱風氣候法之降雨預報產品，提供預報時期更豐富的雨量預報資訊。為能夠增加每年資料維護更新之便利性，重新檢討基礎資料更新介面之功能並進行改進與擴充。本計畫並延續98年度參數檢定自動化之成果，持續對參數檢定自動化模組進行研發與擴充。 本計畫之預期成果，將提供擴充完成之REFOR模式。擴充後之REFOR模式，河川水位與流量之預報範圍包含淡水河、基隆河、新店溪、景美溪，二重疏洪道納入淡水河演算河段，可完整反映流域內各分洪設施之影響。參數檢定自動化模組的持續研發與改善，資料更新介面的功能擴充，能加速系統後續的維護與更新工作。降雨預報來源包含慣性法、中央氣象局QPESUMS、颱風氣候法等降雨預報產品，可提供完整降雨預報趨勢，配合河口暴潮位的有效掌握，有利於提高逕流與河川預報結果之可靠度，有效提昇十河局洪水預報作業之品質。

The “Real Time Flash Flood Forecasting Model for Dansuie River” (REFOR) was developed by the 10th River Management Office in 2004. From 2008 to 2009, the 10th River Management Office updated fundamental geological and hydrological data of REFOR and extended model functions for satisfy real time operation demands. The items of extended function contain database and GIS user interface combination; event simulation, decision support, and parameter calibration system development. Furthermore, after a real state estimation of rain gauges and water level stations in Taliaoken river basin, a beta version of the real time flash flood forecasting system for Taliaoken river basin was established according to the system architecture of REFOR, which is a first flash flood forecasting system for urban drainage network in Taiwan. The extension and maintenance of REFOR proceeds continually in 2010, aims the purpose at estimate the real state of data completeness of Jingmei river and Erchong floodway, for a target to include Jingmei river and Erchong floodway in the river flood routing in REFOR. Moreover, to review the methodology of tidal forecasting model and bring up improved advice and study for apply higher accuracy lower boundary condition of river routing model. The Typhoon Climatologic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (TCQPF) model would be brought in REFOR for provides various rainfall forecasting information. To make the tasks of data update and maintenance more conveniently, a review of basic data update user interface would be done and a modified version would be completed. The study of model parameter automatically calibrate method would be done continuously follow the results of 2009. The results of this project would be completed all extended functions for REFOR. The river forecasting results include water lever and discharge of Dansuie river, Keelung river, Xindian river, Jingmei river, and Erchong floodway, which could express the influences by each diversity engineering structure explicitly. The continuous studies and methodology improvements of model parameter automatically calibrate module, and the extended basic data update user interface, would make the tasks for system maintenance and data update more efficiency in the future. Rainfall forecasting data contain persistent rainfall for next 6 hours, QPESUMS provides by CWB, and estimation results by Typhoon Climatologic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (TCQPF) model, a fully rainfall trend could be obtained. Combining high accuracy rainfall and tidal forecasting product could make the results of rainfall-runoff model and river routing model more reliable, the operation quality of flood forecasting by the 10th River Management Office would be enhanced simultaneously